Eli Kintisch, writing a brief note in ScienceNOW Daily News, 22 May 2007 refers to a paper published by the US National Academy of Sciences:

Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions Open access PNAS

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/0700609104v1

Authors: Michael R. Raupach, Gregg Marland, Philippe Ciais, Corinne Le Que, Josep G. Canadell, Gernot Klepper, and Christopher B. Field

This paper is basically a synthesis from extant data. It is more than simply a re-hashing or simple re-analysis of the publically accessible data. The conclusions are instructive to some; suggestive to others, and still other students believe them to be premature.

One thing is certain. You and/or any other students of the Carbon emissions / energy efficiency interplay can access all the data and argue against the authors' points, since the data is there to be seen. The paper does not lend much strength to the IPCC emission scenarios of the late 1990s and chips away at their current scenarios, and does so using reported, available, information. Of course, somethings do not 'square' with observations -- and that is an implicit in the work.

Eli Kintisch writes, "Stopping the runaway train of world carbon emissions is getting harder by the day, a new global analysis suggests. The culprit is a voracious global appetite for carbon-heavy fossil fuels. In 2003 and 2004, the amount of carbon released for every joule of energy used increased, reversing a long-standing trend, the study reports. That means greenhouse gas levels are rising even faster than previously feared, the authors say, although others aren't so sure."

From the PNAS paper: "The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s." -- "No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China."

Science writer, Eli Kintisch continues, "As countries develop, they typically generate less carbon dioxide for every unit of energy used. That's because they typically move away from coal toward more carbon-efficient fuels such as natural gas, and economies evolve away from heavy manufacturing toward less energy-intensive service industries. But that trend of less carbon dioxide per unit of energy seems to be reversing globally."

Kintisch explains, "Christopher Field of the Carnegie Institution in Palo Alto, California, and co-authors analyzed the relations between energy use, carbon emissions, and economics using public data through 2004. The bottom line: From 2000 to 2004, emissions levels have increased 3% per year--three times the rate of increase from 1990 to 1999."

"China is a big driver, the authors argue." Kintisch says, "That nation's robust economic growth has more than doubled its emission levels since 1990, and carbon-intensity began to increase in 2003 and 2004. China's reliance on coal is largely to blame, according to the scientists, who published their results yesterday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences."

Kintisch points out: "Other experts warn that economic data coming out of China may not be reliable. And "basing a change in trend on just 2 years' data really is a bit of a stretch," says Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, although he adds that it's good to alert people to the possibility.

[The truth on economic data could influence rate of exchange and balance of payments trade ratios, so China, in a unified sense must portray a solid consistent 'face', even if the face is a deceptive parody or a seeming mask of the inscrutable. It simply enlarges the international Carbon equity China must bear; and thus adjusts global responsibilites for a thus-far failed attempt to more rigidly control Carbon emissions especially in developing nations, let alone on a global basis.--Les Porter]

As mentioned, the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America has published the report as open access:
"Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions"
The PNAS report was edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved April 17, 2007 (received for review January 23, 2007)

Kintisch recommends the site: http://cait.wri.org/figures.php
The World Resources Institutue: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool

This graphic compares the proportions of US emissions which would be owned by various other major Atmospheric Carbon emitters, to help one grasp the "equity" of 4.4% of the world's population (Americans) emitting vast and globally comparative masses of Carbon into the air.

Read:

http://www.wri.org/climate/topic_content.cfm?cid=4301

Jeff Logan's article at World Research Institute outlines the Chinese dilemma.

There is much to think about -- besides the fact our huge numbers place upon the world entirely too much of a foot print under the current styles of life, transportation, energy use, and Roman Circus entertainments and such to keep the masses mindless and focused con the latest trinket, must, or toy but away from the collective efforts it is going to require to correct the thing we as a species and a number of self-serving scammers and skimmers -- have done.

I encourage the realization that China's population is nearly 1/5 the world's population. China: 1.3 billion; World: 6.7 billion. There was a time when China's population was 1/3, then 1/4 of global population. Now at 1/5 of mankind, China's development will provide both challenges and opportunities for the entire species. India, at 1/6 of the global population mass, does not have China's resources of coal with which to laden the air.

The shared resource of our global atmosphere, and the long-term consequences of this generation of humans loading it with C and warming our world, even slightly, and altering the precarious and delicately energy-balanced set of feed-back and feed-forward systems -- will establish our species signature upon this planet, our Earth, for centuries and possibly for millenia ahead.

It is important that our species works on the problem with a global perspective, one transcendently removed and far superior to both ideas of world business and nations.

We have crossed the line; we are entering into an undiscovered and formidable realm driven by the greed and the weaknesses of our bright primate natures. We are beginning to explore what it really means to control those amongst us that further the damage, that constrain the species potential futures and limit or diminish the opportunities available -- with their primate greed.

If you would like to sound off on this:

Join me at Xomba.

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