The original article can be accessed at the International Security and Relations Network (Zurich, Switzerland) website: http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=18087

It is unlikely that China will use the IBM System p575 purchased to aid weather forecasting in advance and during the 2008 Olympics in Beijing for weapons development after the Olympics due to the country’s ability to domestically produce machines that run at faster speeds. In 2004, Dawning Information Industry, a Chinese computer manufacturer, completed its 4000A supercomputer, which, according to Top500, an organization which recognizes the world’s most powerful computers semiannually, was the tenth fastest machine in June 2004 with a maximum operational speed of 11.2 teraflops compared to 9.8 teraflops for the IBM System p575. A teraflop is a measure of computing speed equal to one trillion floating point operations per second.

In August 2007, the Beijing Meteorological Bureau (BMB) purchased the IBM System p575 supercomputer specifically for weather forecasting at the 2008 games. The system is capable of analyzing information from a 44,000 square kilometer (about 17,000 square mile) area to provide hourly weather forecasts for each square kilometer. The 80-node, 9.8 teraflop machine is reportedly ten times faster than BMB’s current forecasting supercomputer and 1,000 times faster than the computer used during the 1996 Atlanta Olympics. IBM announced it received the necessary regulatory approvals for the sale of the computer which cost several million dollars and the BMB intends to use the computer to forecast rain, pollution, wind speed, air quality and humidity. Sin Jisong, chief forecaster at BMB, claimed that weather is very unpredictable in Beijing and IBM researcher Zaphiris Christidis reported that the system will be the most advanced one ever used by an Olympic host.

Although the Chinese Army has acknowledged that western computing technology is critical for its weapon modernization program, it is likely Dawning or another organization can build the machine domestically with certain foreign components. For example, Dawning’s 4000A used the 64-bit Opteron processors made by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). When asked if China could use the computer for military applications, technology trend author Michael Kanellos responded, “Sure. But these chips fall within the export regulations as permissible. You can make a notebook [computer] with them, too.” An AMD public relations official, Dave Kroll, said the agreement between his company the Chinese company specifically stipulates non-military uses for the machine.

There is a history of China defense organizations acquiring US-made supercomputers.
In 1997, Gary Milhollin, Director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, reported US-based Silicon Graphics, Inc. sold a supercomputer to the Chinese Academy of Sciences without an export license, which, in turn, China used to help develop the country’s long-range missiles,. The same company reportedly sold systems to a nuclear laboratory in Chelyabinsk, Russia without an export license as well.

In 1999, a Sun Microsystems reseller in Hong Kong sold a supercomputer to the Chinese Scientific Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Between the sale and delivery of the system, it was resold to Yuanwang Corporation, an entity of the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (COSTIND). COSTIND is a Chinese army unit which, according to the US Defense Intelligence Agency, oversees the army’s nuclear weapons research and design. An unconfirmed 2002 article from NewsMax.com, claims that the Chinese Army used US-made computers to design a series of lightweight nuclear weapons, including the Dong Feng 31 missile. This report is likely speculative as reports, including ones from Janes and the BBC, acknowledge the possibility of China stealing missile designs from the US, but not using a US-made supercomputer.

Likely seeking to put its best foot forward on a world stage, the Chinese government appears concerned about the possibility of inclement weather as it has, in addition to purchasing the IBM System p575, launched a satellite to recognize changes in weather and attempted to manually induce rainfall via the Beijing Weather Modification Office. The meteorological satellite, named Fengyun-2D, will provide accurate and timely information during the Olympics, according to chief designer Li Qin. China is using chemicals, including silver iodide, to make water droplets in clouds grow faster and thus rain sooner. The Beijing Weather Modification Office shoots shells containing the chemicals into clouds from the ground or dropped into them by planes. Rain control is likely important because the Chinese Olympic Committee will hold the Opening and Closing Ceremonies, as well as numerous other events, in open-air venues, including the USD 500 million Beijing Olympic Stadium.

Spending a few million dollars for accurate weather prediction is likely justified by the reported total of USD 40 billion that China is investing into the 2008 Olympics, which Chinese Olympic Committee Vice President Tu Mingde says “surpasses the importance of sports itself.” Among the construction projects are thirty-seven competition venues, hundreds of miles of roads and an addition to the Beijing Airport which will double its capacity.