Clinton vs. Obama: The Numbers Game

The Democrat Primary season is winding down and neither candidate has won enough delegates to secure the nomination. Barack Obama holds a somewhat solid lead and is already looking ahead to the general election against John McCain, but does Hillary have a valid argument for not being overlooked and written off? She has a very strong case that can be made about her own candidacy and the possibility of legitimately contending for the presidency in November.

Since Obama’s triumph on Super Tuesday and his twelve-state run which began that night, Hillary has come up with some impressive wins. She beat Barack in Ohio by 10 points and edged him out in Texas the same night by four. She also won Pennsylvania by 10 points and thrashed Senator Obama by 41 points in West Virginia and 35 points in Kentucky. Senator Clinton held out in Indiana for another win by a slim two point margin.

These are pretty impressive wins in states where democrats have a chance of stealing votes from republicans and grabbing the electoral benefits. West Virginia and Kentucky (where Clinton won by a combined 400,000 popular votes out of only 1 million cast) are even more impressive considering the fact that the presumed nominee will be Obama and because of the repeated calls for Hillary to drop out of the race in recent weeks.

Hillary’s other key victories include wins in California and New Jersey by ten points each, New York by seventeen, and another seventeen in Florida. The Florida vote was a three-way race between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards, but even with the combined vote of Obama and Edwards, Hillary still wins by three points. These states have helped her quickly catch up to Obama in the popular vote. If Florida and Michigan are added to the totals (she won Michigan with 55% of the vote, though Obama and Edwards were not on the ballot), he actually holds a solid lead over Barack in the total popular vote.

So what does all of this mean? Well, that depends on who you ask. Obama supporters believe that the nomination was locked up several weeks ago, despite the fact that he has yet to reach the needed number of pledged delegates to secure a victory – and he may not get there without the help of more “super” delegates. Clinton supporters believe that there is a recent trend showing eroding support for Obama. They also think the wins in the “Rust Belt,” which may prove to be major swing states in the general election, are a key factor for the democrats in choosing the right nominee for a national campaign.

There is one thing that is quite noticeable: Clinton and Obama are splitting the traditional blue states, but where Barack is winning states that generally go to the republicans, Hillary is winning the swing states by pretty solid margins. These are the ones that will be more important in November while campaigning against a more moderate republican like John McCain. Add to that Barack’s inability to put away a struggling Hillary that was free-falling throughout February in the heart of the primary season, plus her recent trouncing of Obama in a few states after he was the “uncatchable” frontrunner, and it would appear that Mrs. Clinton has a pretty valid point that he may not be as formidable an opponent as he once was.

Democrats will need to decide which states matter more in November and which candidate has a better chance at winning those states. It is clear that Obama does not identify as well with the voters in those swing states. Some of them also have low populations of black voters, a demographic in which he has dominated Clinton with about 90% voting in his favor. The idea of a combined super-ticket does not seem to be getting much support, but that may be because the race is not officially over. It may be a possibility, but if the race continues to be this closely contested, some bridges may be burned before a deal can be made in the lead up to the convention in August.

In any case, the democrat race is not over. Clinton and Obama will continue to schmooze with the “super” delegates to try to win them over and force the hand of their opponent. If a deal is worked out to allow the votes in Florida and Michigan to be counted, we can probably bet on Hillary staying in this fight until the very end. At the very least, we will see another few weeks of campaigning, positioning, and a lot more schmoozing. As long as that’s happening, there won’t be much discussion of John McCain – which could be a curse for him, but with his string of luck, may actually be a blessing.

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