The original article can be accessed at the International Security and Relations Network (Zurich, Switzerland) website: http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=18440.

A decline in Afghanistan’s opium poppy cultivation is highly unlikely due to the lack of viable eradication methods, a lack of alternative livelihoods and the presence of the Taliban in cultivating provinces.

In 2007, Afghanistan cultivated 193,000 hectares of opium poppy, an increase of 17% from 2006 or over 93% of the world’s poppy supply. The amount of land under cultivation is greater than the amount that is used to cultivate coca in Colombia, Peru and Bolivia combined. Approximately 80% of the total cultivation is located in the country’s southernmost provinces, including Kandahar, Nimroz and Farah, with Helmand Province responsible for nearly half.

The poppy industry is a major part of Afghanistan’s total economy as opium exports generated USD 4 billion in 2007, 29% more than in 2006, a figure representing over half of the country’s Gross Domestic Product. The financial impact of poppy growth trickles down to the individual level as financial gain is likely a main factor in the decision of Afghan farmers to grow poppy for opium versus traditional crops. For example, a farmer can earn USD 2,000 for an acre of poppies compared to just USD 220 for wheat.

Domestic laboratories convert most of the poppy cultivated in Afghanistan into heroin. The price of heroin skyrockets traffickers move the product away from Afghanistan. The wholesale cost of a gram of heroin costs USD 2.50 in Afghanistan, USD 3.50 in neighboring Pakistan and Iran, USD 8 in Turkey, USD 22 in Germany and USD 33 in Russia. The street cost can be ten times higher than this wholesale cost.

The most discussed and debated eradication method is aerial chemical spraying. Parts of the US government, including the White House, State Department and Drug Enforcement Administration, favor the aggressive action, while the Afghan government, British government, NATO, the Pentagon, CIA and US military strongly oppose such action.

Afghanistan’s United Nations’ Ambassador Zahir Tanin opposes aerial spraying in order to avoid alienation of three million people involved in the poppy industry and maintain government stability. Other concerns from Afghan government include the possibility of harming legal subsistence crops grown alongside poppy and contaminating drinking water.

Chemical eradication will highly likely cause a decrease in support for the Karzai Administraion while increasing support for the Taliban insurgency, which receives funding from the poppy industry. This result is supported by a test from 2004, in which the US gauged public reaction to aerial spraying by secretly contracting planes to dust poppy fields with plastic granules. The action directly caused strong public objection from farmers, tribal chiefs and high-level government officials.

Providing alternative livelihoods is virtually certain necessary to achieve significant reduction or complete elimination of opium poppy in Afghanistan. Former Interior Minister Ali Jalali says that many farmers are ashamed grow poppies, but there is no other source of income to support their families. Investing to exploit Afghanistan’s rich natural resources would likely create tens of thousands of new jobs. Afghan Minister of Mines, Mohamad Ibrahim Adel says 95% of the country’s natural wealth remains untapped.

For example, Afghanistan has world-class mineral reserves including the Aynak copper deposit located 19 miles south of Kabul in eastern Afghanistan. The deposit contains 240 million tons of copper which could be mined for a profit of anywhere from USD 100 million to USD 300 million annually. The Afghan government accepted bids from nine companies worldwide to mine Aynak. The Economist predicts a mine at Aynak could create up to 60,000 jobs in related industries.

Other natural resource exploitation opportunities include iron ore, coal, natural gas and oil reserves. The Hajigak iron ore deposit contains 110 million tons of high-grade iron with an opportunity to export the resource to China and Southeast Asia where there is a growing demand for the resources in heavy industry. John SanFilipo, a research geologist at the United States Geological Survey (USGS), says that mining companies can exploit coal resources quickly. In 2006, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) completed an assessment of Afghanistan’s petroleum resources. The study increased oil reserves by 18 times and natural gas more than three times over previous estimates.

The Taliban’s occupation of Afghanistan is highly likely a driving force behind the country’s increasing poppy growth. Former Helmand province governor Mohammad Daud confirms that the poppy industry has allowed the Taliban to return to his province and stall reconstruction. In November 2007, the Brussels-based Senlis Council estimated that the Taliban has a significant presence in more than half of Afghanistan and could even reach the capital by next year. Since being removed from power in 2001, the Taliban has begun to regain control over parts of Afghanistan, particularly the poppy growing southern provinces near Pakistan. The United Nations and other organizations are unable to perform humanitarian work in these areas due to extremely risky conditions. The Taliban encourages poppy cultivation and protects farmers while also protecting drug traffickers in exchange for weapons and funding. According to Ali Jalali, currently at the United States’ National Defense University, any method of forced eradication would drive the farmers to further support the Taliban.

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