Elements of Fear, Three
posted October 1, 2009 - 10:16pmTo reach the beginning of this story:www.xomba.com/grasping_elements_fear
The part 3 is Continued from:
www.xomba.com/elements_fear_two
Subject: Look here, please. ASAP. Clouds got us, and I lost
my image library hooks.
Time: June 22 -- 05:29UT
From: Fred Williams <fscope@westex.com>
To: Bill Harrison <bharris@conew.com>
Bill,
Look here: 17h 45m 12s, -21d 56m 18s.
Confirm something moving. I’ll send you my CCD image frames if you need them.
Thanks!
Fred
-------------------
Subject: NOTHING! Check your Right Ascension and Declination! Send me your images!
Time: June 22 -- 05:52UT
From: Bill Harrison <bharris@conew.com>
To: Fred Williams <fscope@westex.com>
Fred!
Please send me different coordinates. Or better, send me your images! What you sent must be a typo? I assume you’re close; so it is in Saturn’s general direction?
I looked at the position you sent, and recorded NOTHING moving or new in that area of the sky (a three arc-minute diameter field) -- to at least 18th magnitude. Shoot me your image data frames. I'll extrapolate and locate. There are NO clouds in my area of New Mexico.
If it is near Saturn then you have several hours yet tonight. After about 10:00UT, it’s too late, it gets into morning twilight here. You can try Steve in Hawaii and see if he can grab a look AFTER you fire the stuff off to me. This time of year it is darker longer as far south as Steve is on Maui, so you have until probably 12:45UT for stuff to him. That would give him a couple hours. (He might be able to work it into his program . . . and then again, he might not.) But I will!
Just what were/are you doing looking in that part of the sky?
I assume “us” means Misty is still there?
Bill
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Subject: Take my two CCD frames
Time: June 22 -- 06:01UT
From: Fred Williams <fscope@westex.com>
To: Bill Harrison <bharris@conew.com>
Image: MDC archives, DSS original, by F H Williams & M J Garris
Bill,
Attached are two CCD frames. The previous coordinates I sent were the center of field, not the object. SORRY! For these two images, center of field coordinates are in the headers. These images were not precisely centered on the object either, but use the images with your library to find the object and extrapolate a position to point your telescope and confirm. Let's don't bother Steve until you can confirm the object . . . ? After all, we do this for fun and we are retired -- he gets to do this stuff for a living.
On the first frame I’ve added an arrow to indicate the object. It is that little “streak.” This was at 4:52:12UT. The exposure was 15-seconds. The clouds really moved in at 5:12UT, about 20 minutes later, while doing the second frame. The second frame exposure was only about four or five seconds long before the clouds moved in. Because it did not make much streak, I don’t even know where it is in the image. I can't overlay the two frames’ edges since they don't overlap.
Yes! Misty is still here! Yes. I was showing-off with the 50-inch Tinsley and a new eyepiece.
She’s decided to spend another week (or two) here at the ranch! (We are having a blast!) And yes, when the clouds got us, Misty said, “Call Bill, now!.”
Visually, we were using the latest electronic eyepiece from Colwins Optical Electronics and we could see this moving over a short time, like a comet, or an asteroid so it is probably close to us and possibly just space junk.
When Misty and I started with the telescope after we got back from dinner in Alpine, she suggested observing the milky way in the neighborhood of Saturn since that is the only part of the sky where there weren’t any clouds. If this is new, Misty should be credited as co-discoverer or co-investigator!
I don’t know how I trashed my image library soft hooks. Misty says, “Mysterious Cosmic Rays!” My library images are on my library hard drive - - somewhere!
I could try downloading some online images, but I have this buddy in Chama, NM, who might be able to locate and confirm what I hope is a new object. You’re on, Bud!
Please accept my groveling, chagrined apologies! I thought coordinates would be quicker. Misty and I will be trying to restore my library hooks. We’ll be here in the observatory at least until we get a message from you. Lets beat the LSST if it is new!
Thanks Bill.
Fred
======
Subject: Eureka! And accolades to both of you!
Time: June 22-- 08:59UT
From: Bill Harrison <bharris@conew.com>
To: Fred Williams <fscope@westex.com>
Fred! I got it! Congratulations! To you and to Misty! Sorry it took so long, I’ve been busy. I checked the LSST program, and they are looking at sky way north of where you are looking. I also checked their most recent images of that area and they missed it or it was not visible to them four days ago. And, about thirty minutes ago I called Hawaii and sent a package to Steve. I also sent Bradley Mears a note just to get your claim of precedence, and I filled out the online forms as required. I cited M. J. Garris as co-discoverer. You two will get the credit!
Steve examined your object while we were on the phone, and he sent me his first frame. I used his data and our data and computed distance, direction, and speed. BTW, as soon as I found your object, I programmed my scope to continue recording 10-second CCD frames of your object until morning twilight. ( I’m going to make a movie, and you will get to see it! But the larger purpose is to improve my velocity, distance, and vector values. )
After doing a quickie set of measurements and computations, I asked Steve in YOUR NAME (Well, both our names) to ping his bosses and muscle in a priority request to take a look at the object with the Seven Parsec Observatory. He asked me why would NASA direct the Seven Parsec Observatory to something you just found?
Here is why.
It is NOT, I repeat, is NOT in orbit.
I compute this thing is moving sun-ward from way beyond Saturn! It isn’t close to us. And it is moving fast! I have it at 13th magnitude. My measurement of its brightness indicates it is something pretty large for that distance from the sun. It could be a hundred or so miles in diameter, or larger. Your frames showed it was much fainter than 13th magnitude, but it is 13th magnitude now.
One look from space where Seven Parsec Observatory is would be better than a week of purely earth-based astrometry. I have sufficiently precise data for its position and a vector projection for them to locate it easily. Steve has my projection of its path. Seven Parsec Observatory is favorably located and presently at a bit more than 3.4 Astronomical Units from us. It can nail this with a single observation. But I can guarantee they will want more than one observation!
Congrats again Fred and Misty! You’re gonna be in pictures! You’re gonna be even more famous! And Misty is too!
(Way to go Misty! I’m glad Carol Anne made me introduce you two!)
You might disconnect your phone if you want to get some sleep!
Bill
----------------------
Subject: The heck you say
Time: June 22 --10:48UT
From: Fred Williams <fscope@westex.com>
To: Bill Harrison <bharris@conew.com>
Bill,
First things first: Misty and I are not doing this alone. I've e-mailed Steve and Bradley. I filled out a new discovery form online. You did the same for me last time, if you recall. And this time, you did all the work.
But, on your distance -- ‘way beyond Saturn’? Bill! I personally think you’re full of crap on that. Just how FAR is “way beyond Saturn”? We could see it moving. That is what tipped me off it was worth checking out. Shouldn’t you wait to get more baseline length? More observations?
Okay, let us assume NASA agrees to take a look. This could be really embarrassing! I’ll bet NASA will do it, because WE are asking them through Steve. This “look at what these folks found” could cost several hundred thousand dollars, and for what?
That is what I worry about.
[BTW, Misty thinks you did the right thing.]
When and if Seven Parsec Observatory gets a look then you’ll really know how good your stuff is and how good your reputation is. (Our reputation(s).) If you are within 10% on your distance, I’ll buy you a new CCD chip set of your choice. IF. I hope you are right and it is “way out” there. But not so right as I have to buy you a chip set! ;) We’ll see what happens.
Misty just now got my library hooks rebuilt! We still have clouds. And there is morning twilight glowing in the eastern sky. (“Cloudy twilight,” Misty says.) Now that I can hook my images, I‘ll check what you are claiming! Send me your data! Send me some of the movie! Congratulations to you, “Way Beyond Saturn”. But I am going to check what you have computed!
Then, I am going to try to get a few winks. (If I can talk Misty into it, she’s wired, -- but I’m tired.) She’s really into this discovery stuff!
Thanks!
Fred.
=========
Subject: Full of crap, huh? ;) ! Take a look at the data.
Time: June 22 -- 11:29UT
From: Bill Harrison <bharris@conew.com>
To: Fred Williams <fscope@westex.com>
Fred;
Full of crap!? Well, good Buddy! The chip set you are going to buy me is the new 2880 model from Starbit Inc. and it isn’t cheap! You’re on!
If I’m wrong, I’ll buy you that chip set. And we’ll reduce the distance limits to +/- 3% to give you a better chance. But I know you might as well contact Starbit Inc. on their answering machine after you check my computations. Heck, you need sleep. Yawn! I think it’s fatigue affecting your judgement. Ha! ;))
Separately, I’ve sent you the latest CCD frames I have, as well as the movie as far as it goes. You can use all these images to compute positions and see what you get. Two of Steve’s images are also included.
I was going to crash, but some things really bothered me about your discovery . . . and you do not need to respond right now, just think about them.
I’m trying to figure how the brightness changed so dramatically.
Image: MDC archives, DSS original, B Harrison
It should bother you that your first CCD frame recorded the object at 17th magnitude; your second frame has it at 16th magnitude and that my first image has it a solid 13th magnitude. I’m using good comparison stars right in the image field. What could produce an almost forty-fold increase in brightness in mere hours? Comets can’t do it except when weeks go by. Right now this is so far out it hasn’t had time to absorb solar energy in the amounts to boil off normal comet stuff. I don’t record any trace of gas or dust debris. I do not know how or why, but it is now a solid 13th magnitude. So, maybe it has a flat face which rotated into view like a mirror, or a face covered with pure white crystalline snow? All speculation at this point.
Using Steve’s first image and mine and yours, for a baseline, the whole baseline (about four hours on Earth orbit) is a little larger than the distance from Earth to Moon. That is a lot more parallax than you might think. At the distance of your new object, that four-hour-baseline subtends an angle of nearly one arcminute. (It is a little under a minute of arc, but that is a sufficient angle to use in conjunction with even the Hipparcos star locations.) The distance from Earth that I compute to your new discovery is 10.85 AU. I’d bet (for the chip set) my computed distance values are well within 3% of what Seven Parsec Observatory will provide, via its fortunate location. Velocity is tougher, of course. That is where Seven Parsec Observatory can help make the call precisely.
Using your data, my data and Steve’s data, what spits out of my computation’s program for your object’s motion is a velocity of 1390 +/- 500 kilometers per second! Yeah, yeah! Admittedly, that is a large error range and is mostly a geometrical artifact, because the object is coming toward us somewhat. But even if its velocity is at the low end, something around 890 km/s, it is really moving, and it is not in a solar orbit! It doesn’t belong to our sun’s family. I think it is just passing through the solar system. Your new object might be from the interstellar or even intergalactic neighborhood I’m getting good feedback since I’m basing my interpretation mostly on how well its observed position keeps matching my predictions of its position using that middling value (1390 km/s) for velocity. The seeing here is as good as it gets.
I have to brag on this a second. You saw it moving because it is moving. It looked like it might be in orbit close to home. If it were moving ACROSS our field of view, which it isn’t, it would appear to be an object in orbit around the Sun closer than the orbit of Mars. If you hadn’t trashed your image hooks, and were cloud free, it might be me being a skeptic, and you doing the bragging. But the image data and the geometry will convince you. I’m building good vector data right now.
The positions, as best I can measure, are a perfectly straight line pointed generally toward a point a bit beyond Mars’s orbit, quite a distance from us. You two have made a rather remarkable and spectacular discovery!
We might get some mass values for this object. Even though it is a straight line to me, Saturn should pull on it a little, and deflect the object. Again, Seven Parsec Observatory will yield the definitive answer with a single look. I’m going to continue refinement of distance, direction, and velocity. But to cinch it precisely, I need the Seven Parsec Observatory data! (Then I’d like you to buy me that CCD chip set!)
Make your announcement on the AstroDiscovery Bulletin Board. We need to get observers looking at this all around the world. We won’t be able to see it again from our locations until tomorrow evening, but we can get data from every other location on the planet. The Seven Parsec folks will observe simultaneously with Australia or South Africa, and nail it soon. Steve has contacted the Bureau and he thinks they will issue a circular immediately; but he is also calling to notify every colleague he can think of on the phone!
He is speculating way ahead of us; he thinks it might be an asteroid “boil off” or planetary ejection (evaporation) from long ago and far away, like a cluster or young planetary system within a few thousand light years. And you know Steve. By the book, no imagination. Now we have Steve’s imagination working! We can all speculate!
For Seven Parsec Observatory’s current position, it takes between 28 and 29 minutes to get any new program or interrupt commands from here to its high gain antenna. Once Steve’s message gets to NASA brass it’ll probably take an hour to get permission and then a few minutes to code it and check it at Seven Parsec HQ, and then the pointing of the Seven Parsec Observatory optics takes from three to 30 minutes depending on where they have been pointed when the command string comes in. So it could be nearly two hours to move the scope from the time when they decide to go for an image; mere seconds to minutes collecting photons, or less, and then transmit the data back to earth; another half hour. I’m thinking about getting some needed sleep!
That chip set is going to cost you nearly 23 grand! Unless I’m wrong. (That is, you might get it at a discount -- I could be wrong on the cost.) But my computations are good! Check it out. Thank you for the opportunity to add to my observatory a very useful piece of quality equipment! ;))
Rub it in, rub it in,
Bill
======
Subject: Why is it you guys are spending so much time typing e-mail?
Time: June 22 -- 11:15UT
From: Fred Williams <fscope@westex.com>
To: Bill Harrison <bharris@conew.com>
Bill, this is from Misty –
I asked Fred why you two don’t just call each other on the phone instead of all this archaic e-mail. He said you both wanted records with details and times. He said that is why the Subject is on the top line and the Time is next as Universal Time. He also said you have some encoded characters you can set at the beginning of the message that on your mail servers generate a message for your pagers so that if the email isn’t read or looked at in the amount of time you specify when sending - - his pager or yours starts making “lots and lots” of noise.
He says that you do have a voice to text interpreter, but you don’t always use it. He insists that typing the messages give you both a chance to reflect upon message content, word selection, choices the immediacy of the telephone doesn’t allow. Still, I have several software packages that might assist you with these kinds of things.
Anyways, Bill, since coming down here to Texas and Fred’s ranch, I am having the time of my life! Neither one of you can imagine how excited I am about this! Maybe the words should be, “I am enthralled, or just blown away, or maybe because of Fred, swept away!”
The last time I felt like this was when I was a teenager in ‘96 and ‘97, and we could see Comet Hayakutake, and then Comet Hale-Bopp. I have not even looked skyward for any length of time since then – until now. But there is more to it, and I will talk to both you and Fred about this soon. I can’t thank you enough for introducing me to Fred!
Say “Hi” to Carol Anne and Cheryl for me. I love you all!
And Bill, Fred just remarked, “Damn it! It looks like he’s right!”
So, CONGRATULATIONS to you, Bill, on winning the bet and the new 2880 chip set from Starbit Inc.! (I know the challenge will be to collect your winnings. He’s good for it. It irks him though!)
Misty
This story is continued at

Comments
It will not "hit" us, physically - but I can't/won't spoil it .
Thanks Darrell.
Feel free to comment, critique, and disagree or point to language you don't like. I have not written this "down-" level for anyone; that is, I have not addressed it for a "non-scientific readership" crowd, but at the same time I am attempting to make it not too difficult to understand even though there are numbers and words within it to engage the brain.
I just hope most readers will pickup on the underlying and really scary ideas within the story -- which I am attempting to outline as the story progresses. Schyler Marshall is the conundrum, but there are many in the full version.
Hope you can get into it enough even though in this version I am not showing the fully developed characters. Thanks. I hope you like it as it continues.
les
I like
I like the direction this is going - is it going to hit us?! Is it an alien spacecraft?! hmmmmmm
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