The subject of global warming remains one of my favorite to discuss. Not because I have fallen into the trap of hysterics or false pretenses, but because I love to show people how truly ignorant they are in the subject of science. This ignorance does not preclude me, or any scientist for that matter, so this is not just a hubristic attempt to preach condescendingly to the dumb masses. People should obtain knowledge on a subject before they commit wholeheartedly to its cause and unintended (or in this case, intended) consequences.

For a few decades, we’ve been hearing a wide array of so-called “theories” on man-made global warming and its eventual cost to humanity. I do not call them theories because they do not qualify as such according to the Scientific Method which is applied to hypotheses in order to conduct experiments and find results. Since no climatic model could possibly consider all of the innumerable variables, these experiments couldn’t possibly precisely and accurately predict a change. The most probable way to determine if these hypotheses are accurate would be to wait and see what actually happens in the real world, since the complexity of our planet and solar system is impossible to recreate in a laboratory or on a computer. Because of this, most of the predictions we hear are nothing more than a guess.

Everyone from scientists, teachers, politicians, and even entertainers give their opinion on global warming, but most simply repeat what they’ve heard from sources unbeknownst to them. They don’t diligently conduct their own research and find themselves only able to utter a few sentences about fossil fuels and SUV’s. This leads to the main argument made by most proponents of the man-made global warming idea, excess carbon dioxide.

Nowadays, carbon dioxide has a bad reputation throughout the pro man-made global warming crowd, or PMMGWC. It is accused of being a gas that leads to the greenhouse effect, and rightly so. This is one aspect of the argument that is not disputable. On the other hand, disagreements arise between researchers about the current levels of carbon dioxide, from where the gas is originating, and how much will be needed to cause a climatic change, if it is even the direct cause. The PMMGWC will have you believe that most of this greenhouse effect is being caused by mankind. However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that only about three percent of carbon dioxide that is created comes from humans and their activities. That means approximately 97% of the small amount of carbon dioxide (currently estimated at about 0.04% of our atmosphere) created every year is a result of natural carbon cycles.

Carbon dioxide is not just a by-product of exhaling humans and their industrial machines. It is released by decaying plants and animals, volcanoes, and even the oceans. Carbon is also absorbed by the oceans and small organisms. Carbon dioxide is used by plants during photosynthesis and when a forest is in its growing stage, it uses very large amounts. So in other words, carbon dioxide is not evil and neither are the life forms that produce it. Over time, the amount of this gas in our atmosphere has fluctuated in measurable cycles and we happen to be in one of these upswings today.

Now we will get into the interesting parts of this conversation. We can discuss ice ages and the Milankovitch Cycle, space dust, solar radiation, precipitation, and possibly many other factors that could cause global warming. I’ll try to keep it as short as possible so that you can conduct your own research, which I encourage. After all, I’m not here to tell you WHAT to think, just that you SHOULD think.

Did you know that by definition we are currently in an ice age? That’s the dirty little secret the PMMGWC won’t tell you. We’ve been in this present ice age for 40 million years. There are two periods during an ice age used to define the climate, glacial (colder) and interglacial (warmer). Today we are in an interglacial period that began about 10,000 years ago. Climatologist predictions range from 12,000 to even 50,000 years of this warmer cycle. That means at the very least, if their predictions are right, we won’t have any significant change for a minimum of another 2,000 years and maybe not for another 40,000. The PMMGWC has been telling us we’re only ten years away and they’ve been preaching this for the last three decades.

So what causes these ice ages? That’s the million dollar question. There may be many factors that go into the cause and one of them may have to do with the Earth’s orbit and axial tilt.

A Serbian engineer and mathematician, Milutin Milankovic had a theory about the Earth’s climate and its position throughout its orbit. As we all learned in elementary school (or at least by high school…no, neither one?), the Earth has an elliptical orbit. This means that it does not revolve around the Sun in a perfect circle, and there are even variations to this orbital path that are caused by gravitational fields of other planets. Add to this a continual movement of the degree of tilt to the Earth’s axis and you have multiple variations in our planets position and exposure relative to the Sun. There is also a gradual drift up and down in the plane of the orbit relative to its current position, called orbital inclination. Milankovic did not study this last aspect of the Earth’s positioning, but nevertheless had this complete cycle named for him.

What does all of this mean? Well basically, it’s much like the four seasons we experience here in our average year but on a much longer and larger scale. The Earth goes through periods where it is closer to the Sun and then farther, the poles are tilted more towards the Sun and then away. Radiation levels absorbed from the Sun increase and decrease and the Earth may even pass through parts of its changing orbit where there is dust and debris. All of these changes happen in cycles of many thousands of years and our orbital inclination has recently correlated with changes in climate. But before you go blaming the solar system and demanding restrictions on orbital tracks and radiation, there’s much more to consider.

More locally, meaning here on Earth, there are factors that can disrupt certain oceanic flows that affect our weather. Our changes in climate can be affected by the movement of tectonic plates. (If you don’t know what those are, look it up.) If the currents that carry warm water from the equator to the poles are disrupted, it will have an effect on our climate. Let’s say that the plates shift and the Gulf Stream becomes blocked by the eastern United States. This strong current carries warm water into the northern Atlantic Ocean which provides a relatively warmer climate to the British Isles which otherwise would be much cooler. This would greatly affect their agriculture and would most likely have an adverse effect on the average temperature of neighboring countries as well. And that’s just one change…imagine if there were more. Oceanic currents are vital to the warming and cooling of certain parts of our planet and if they change, so does our climate.

Atmospheric conditions also play a role in our global temperature. The greenhouse gases that keep our planet warm work as double agents keeping our planet cool as well. These gases trap the amount of heat and radiation needed for our current climate (current meaning thousands or millions of years), and also reflect radiation to keep from overheating. Without this atmosphere, we would probably experience something similar to Mercury where it is around 800 degrees during the day and a few hundred below zero at night, except our temperatures would not be so hot since we are not as close to the Sun. The PMMGWC tells us that we will be scorched by the excessive heat trapped in our atmosphere and only then will the planet fix itself and release this energy into space, thus cooling the planet and beginning a new ice age. (Remember that we are currently in an ice age, so they really mean that Earth will enter a glacial period.) Another problem with this idea is the fact that they think this process could happen in an extremely short amount of time, perhaps within a hundred years from the time it starts, some even within a decade. The creators of "The Day After Tomorrow" think severe climate change could happen in just days.

There are so many other factors that can contribute to climatic changes. An increase or decrease of solar radiation from a corresponding change in sunspot cycles (there’s that “cycle” word again…it’s funny how it seems to appear over and over), a change in the amount of precipitation which has a huge effect on average temperatures due to the amount of water vapor created (which is also a greenhouse gas amounting to nearly 75 times the amount of carbon dioxide), and even meteorites and volcanic activity. All of the aforementioned cycles and activities can have an effect on our climate and the importance of these different variables just depends on which type of scientist you ask. Astronomers will tell you it’s conditions in our solar system, geologists will tell you it’s tectonics, and climatologists will say it’s atmospheric. Good luck getting them to agree on something.

The one thing that we can deduce from all of this is that the PMMGWC doesn’t seem to want to do their research and try to find anything resembling truth. They somehow managed to arrive at a consensus in a field of study where consensus means there is a lack of individual thought and reasoning. Scientists cannot agree on what causes climate change even with extensive data looking into our past, but the PMMGWC tells us in absolutes that they know exactly what will happen in the future. I find it nearly impossible to believe they are so enlightened and I find it hard to believe so many people are willing to blindly accept their claims.

Am I the final word on global warming? Absolutely not. Any self-respecting scientist wouldn’t claim to be either. So why do we have so many out there claiming to be all-knowing and telling us exactly what we need to do to stop global warming? It makes me wonder what their intentions are and I can draw my own conclusions. What if we can’t stop global warming? What if we can’t cause it? Why are the people within the PMMGWC so hysterical about stopping something they don’t really know much about?

Anyone can do the research necessary to formulate their own opinions. It’s not just reserved for scientists. Simple searches on Wikipedia and the NOAA website can give you tons of information about everything I’ve written. There’s really no excuse for not being informed, so don’t fall into the trap that so many ignorant people do daily.

Now just sit back and watch the rants from the ones who claim they know it all.