well, the nfc turned out to be pretty straightforward. the giants won & the giants got in. in the afc, the jets won & got in (thanx, raiders!). & my bengals dropped an ot loss to the no-longer-defending superbowl champs, so they're out. they had a good season overall... but clearly you can't have eight players arrested during the season & still hope to be there at the end.
but the broncos? when they met san diego for the first of their games this season (week 11), denver & the chargers had identical 7-2 records. denver had recovered from an opening week loss to the rams & their only other loss was a nail-biter loss to the powerhouse colts (still in the midst of their unbeaten streak). & while two of those 7 wins had come at the expense of the raiders, denver had won some ugly games against the chiefs, ravens & patriots, (all of whom are playoffs-bound). they were the first team to win against baltimore this season... & after the baltimore win, they went 4-1 to set themselves up as arguably the 2nd best team in the afc after the colts (then 9-0).
[side note... the win over baltimore gave qb jake plummer a career 65-64 win-loss ratio. it was the first time in his CAREER that he'd won more games than he'd lost. hmm... perhaps the fact that plummer's not much of an nfl quarterback might have had some impact on denver's season.]
now, i don't wanna suggest that it was the thrashing they received at the hands of the chargers that did in the broncos season... but they missed out on the playoffs largely due to a four-game losing streak begun & ended with losses to san diego. the first time san diego had swept their season series with denver since 1982.
no... the broncos season was lost in the way it began & ended. week 1, they lost to st. louis; week 17, they lost to san fransisco. their other 5 losses were ALL to playoff teams (indy, san diego, kc, seattle, san diego). the quarterback change didn't have much to do with the ultimate success of the season one way or the other. for my money... the broncos 1-3 record against the weak nfc west is the main reason that they're on the outside looking in.
that... & the fact that after their week 5 win over baltimore... their last 6 wins all came against non-playoff teams. it sounds overly simplistic... perhaps even a little condescending... but playoff teams get to the playoffs by beating other playoff contenders. & after week 5, denver could only beat non-playoff teams (oakland, cleveland, pittsburgh, oakland, arizona, cincinnati).