Introduction To Weather Folklore
One of the most ubiquitous facets of humankind are folk tales of weather prediction. I dare to say they exist in all societies in one form or another. Much weather folklore from here is similar to that elsewhere.

Winter Folklore

My grandparents and mother have told me that back when they lived at St. John's in the Wilderness they knew snow was coming because certain types of birds would flock around and forage for food. One type was the black-capped chickadee and another was the snow bunting. The book Land Birds East Of The Rockies (1919 edition) by Chester A. Reed, lists the snow bunting by the name snowflake. I can't remember seeing any of these birds since the late 1950s when I was a child. My mother can't recall having seen them since at least that time either.
My grandfather, who lived to be 95, studied the weather all of his life. He claimed that he had found a way to predict with a fair amount of accuracy how many snowfalls we would have in a given year. His method was to note the date when the first snow fell and that number would be the amount of snowfalls we'd have. If the first snow came on December 15, then we'd have 15 snowfalls. He couldn't predict how much snow would fall though. We asked him how much snow would count as a snowfall and he said "enough snow to track a cat in" which is about 1/4 inch. My sister has followed up on this and she reports that since my grandfather died in 1982 his formula has been fairly accurate, having been off by one for a couple of years.
There have been many theories on predicting the severity of winter. One of long standing is that if squirrels had particularly fluffy tails it would portend a harsh winter. Others claimed that if squirrels hoarded inordinately great amounts of acorns it would also mean a harsh winter was in store. Studies show that the fluffiness of a squirrel's tail is due to a reaction to the previous winter's weather; whereas the acorn stashing behavior is due to a particularly high production of acorns by the oaks. Therefore, the squirrels are just taking advantage of a bumper crop.
Perhaps the most controversial of all is the woolly bear caterpillar. This has to do with the amount of brown hair in relation to the amount of black hair and how much occurs in the front, middle and rear of the worm. Each autumn the newspapers run articles about this phenomenon from both the scientific and folklore points of view. The Trailside Museums at Bear Mountain State Park has periodically studied this matter and this has been revived in recent years. During this time the data shows that the woollies are right most of the time. In order to have any scientific validity this accuracy will have to be repeated for several decades.
Legends and folk tales are one of the things which all cultures have in great wealth. Because man was primarily agrarian for so long, crude means of weather forecasting were developed. Until the advent of scientific meteorology, which is only slightly more than a century ago, these stories, myths, and legends were all that man had to try and make sense of his surroundings. Naturally, these are abundant in the cultural history of the Hudson Valley because until the completion of the Tappan Zee Bridge in 1955 we were mostly an agricultural community.
Among the folk axioms is one which I've heard many times from many sources. It is said that winter can't set in until the swamps are full of water. I can recall years when the swamps had less water than usual, but they always have a fair amount of water in them when the big freeze arrives. I remember when I was a child and we would have a run of several consecutive freezing days, I would comment that winter must be here. Someone would say that there wasn't enough water in the swamps and that it would warm up again soon and more rain would fall before winter could officially arrive. This always astounded me because it seemed obvious (at least to me) how anyone could say this despite the cold. But, they were always correct.
There is another story about predicting the end of winter. My father grew up in Haverstraw, N.Y. and he could recall along with other locals of the same age bracket that when the Hudson River would freeze over so solidly that cars and wagons could be driven across Haverstraw Bay to Westchester. He and his brothers would even skate across. Today, the amount of commercial boat traffic on the river doesn't allow for complete coverage. In fact, I can never remember it happening and my memory of seasonal events reaches back into the 1950s. My father said that in his youth he would that know when the river froze over solidly, that was the peak of winter. Very shortly thereafter the days would become warmer.
Another old adage which probably is global, is the one about a ring or halo around the moon as being a sign of approaching precipitation. Scientifically speaking, this is due to water droplets or ice crystals in the atmosphere being refracted by the moonlight. Rainbows are a related daytime phenomenon. In this region there is (or was) an old saying about this happening in the winter. Old folks said that a ring around the moon meant that snow was coming. Similarly, they used to say that when a moon was peering through heavy cloud cover that it was "Wading through snow". This, they said, was a sign of snow.
In the winter there was always an adage that the length of the longest icicle will be the amount of snow that will fall that winter. "Thunder in the wintertime" was always a saying that country mothers exclaimed when their children became unruly. It also is a strong indication that winter was nearing its end because warm air currents are moving into the region. I can also remember my grandfather and other people of his generation recite the proverb shortly after New Years Day, "When the days begin the lengthen, the sun begins to strengthen". Annually folks make small talk throughout January about the days getting longer.

Spring Folklore

The annual event of Ground Hog's day is a national tradition. I don't know how accurate it is, but I doubt if it's more than 50%. Another similarly arbitrary adage is that when the first robins appear it will mean that spring is at hand. I can recall several years when they came in late February when we had a string of warm days. But, invariably, March would bring blizzards and I know the robins had to have been here several weeks prior to that. By the way, late winter or early spring snowfalls are called robin's snows by the old folks.
One story which, as I remember, does have a little more merit to it. This is that when spiders begin to become active around the house it is a sign that a thaw is coming. I can remember an occasion some years ago when in the dead of winter a couple of spiders would crawl out somewhere and within a couple of days the weather became warmer.
Frogs also have legends associated with singing or calling. Tree frogs (called spring peepers) create the familiar chorus on March or April evenings. As with the Indian summer legends, there are many misconceptions surrounding the peepers' singing and the arrival of spring. Although we'd like to think so, it doesn't necessarily follow that just because they are active that it's a harbinger of nice weather. As my grandfather used to say, "Spring can't come until the spring peepers have been shut up twice". In other words, the frogs have to be sent back into inactivity by two cold snaps before it can be safely said that spring has arrived. Examples such as this are nothing more than alternative methods of measuring time.
I've noticed subtle changes in annual foliage which may have some bearing, or at least add some degree of predictability to short term weather changes. One is that on years when the foliage is particularly dense, that summer is usually a wet one. Similarly, on years when the mountain laurel blooms especially profusely it will also usually be a wet summer. The opposite is true as well that when the blossoms are sparse it will usually be a dry and hot summer. There are obviously times when weather affects the growth of plants and my grandfather used to say "A cold, wet May means a barn full of hay".
I live near a marshy area and it's always teeming with wetland birds. As far back as I can remember, I have associated the first day each year when I hear a red-winged blackbird shriek its familiar "conk-a-ree" song, with the end of winter. Usually this is in the middle of February, but on years when I've heard them earlier it's invariably a year when the spring arrives ahead of schedule.

Summer Folklore

One quip I've heard from many farmers is "Rain at 7, clear by 11". Another common one is that when birds flock to perch on wires this means fair weather. This is true because when the air is thin as it is during fair weather, it is harder for birds to fly. Some people say that if a far away train whistle sounds clear and close by, this is a sign of rain. This is often true because far away sounds like train whistles can be heard over farther distances because a low cloud ceiling reflects the sound back to the ground. Whereas in clear weather the sound travels unrestrictedly upward and outward. The old adage that if smoke hangs close to the ground it means rain, is true for the same reason. Still others say that if the leaves turn upside down it means rain too. Granted, once in a while this may be true, but this is due to nothing more than a shift in the wind direction.
One of the most universal rain sayings is "Red sky in morning, sailor take warning. Red sky at night, sailor's delight". Another one which I've studied for many years is the accuracy of clouds that are often referred to as mackerel back sky or mud sky. These are technically known as cirrostratus. They are the clouds which resemble bulldozer tracks in the sky. They occur on very dry and clear days and almost invariably they indicate that rain will follow within 48 hours. I have only known this to fail on one occasion in almost 30 years of watching these things. And I consider this to have been an aberration as the weather pattern was interfered with by a hurricane down south.
There is always one story which ranks amongst the inexplicable. One which I have experienced many times and I can't fathom as to why it happens, is that summer thunderstorms seem to have something to do with dairy products going sour. I can't tell you how many times I've had yogurt or milk ruined after a storm. Is it the heat, humidity, coincidence or what? Whatever it is, it confounds me to this day. If anyone out there has any thoughts on this I'd appreciate hearing from you.
The English have always been renowned for their affinity for animals, especially house pets. There are weather related axioms involving animals and their behavior , which, as far as I'm able to ascertain, originated with the English. I have also never found them to be present in lore outside of this region. The one I've heard most often is that when a cat sleeps with its head upside down it means that it would rain shortly thereafter. Similarly, if a sleeping cat snores this would also indicate that rain was coming. These things always amaze me and I'd like to meet the person who coined these terms and ask him how he arrived at these conclusions.
In the summer we have all heard grasshoppers chirping and usually on the hottest days. Many old timers in the region refer to these insects as "singing grasshoppers" and it's fabled that when they sing it's a sure sign that it will be a very hot day.
My mother recalls from her childhood that right after a rainfall red eft salamanders would come running out from all over the place. She also says that one time she and a lifelong friend collected a jar full and brought them to school. Somehow they managed to escape from the jar and got all over the classroom. The teacher made them collect each and every last one of them before school could reconvene.

Autumn Folklore

Universality has been a common theme throughout this article. One more example of this is the annual phenomenon called Indian summer. At least in this country (and Canada) this term is widely known, but what is almost as widespread are the misconceptions about it. Most people are under the misapprehension that Indian summer is merely an abnormally warm period in the autumn. Each year I hear people referring to a few warm days in October (sometimes even September) as Indian summer. The problem is that people believe that just because the calendar says that it's fall, and because the leaves are changing color, that a warm spell automatically translates into Indian summer. Unfortunately, it's not quite that simple. Technically speaking, Indian summer can't occur until there has been at least one hard frost. This term also has a strict definition. A hard frost is not the little bits of frost we see on our lawns in late September. Hard frosts are those which damage fruit. And these don't normally occur until November or very late October (in the Hudson Valley region that is). So many times I've heard old folks say to people who incorrectly call a few warm October days Indian summer, "It can't be Indian summer because the pumpkins haven't frozen yet". I have also heard the same said of grapes (hence the term "frost grapes").
Down through the ages mankind has discovered so many subtle facts about nature that little by little he learned how to predict behavior of animals, plants, and even the weather. In many instances changes in one of these will indicate changes in another. Insects are often noted to indicate patterns or trends in the weather. For example, to get the approximate Fahrenheit temperature add 37 to the number of times a cricket chirps in 15 seconds.
Katydids also can indicate trends in the weather. I have an old New York Times article from 1936 which says that on that year the katydids became active somewhat earlier than usual and that this was a sign of an early frost. According to the katydid legend, frost appears six weeks after these insects begin their chirping. I can remember hearing people say that when katydids call their familiar "Katydid, katydidn't" song, it would be a cool evening. Needless to say, when they start to become active is when summer is winding down. This usually begins around the dog days of August. Incidentally, the term, "dog days", it has been said, comes from when in the old times of rabies being rampant, dogs when mad with hydrophobia during this time. This is untrue because late summer is when Sirius, the dog star, is the evening star.
My grandpop and other people in his generation used to say something about "If it rains on the first Sunday in October it would rain every Sunday in October". There was another one which said that if it rained on St. Swithen's day (in September) it will rain every other Sunday for a month. There seems to be some mention of Harvest Home Sunday (which is the first Sunday in October), but it's difficult to define it because it's been so many years since anyone has recited it.
This part of writing articles like this is sad because, as with so much of our history and folklore, much of it is forgotten and can't be passed on to other generations.
(C) Copyright 1996 AJS