Iran... the gathering storm

In April 2006, Iran announced that its pilot facility at Natanz had successfully enriched uranium to a level of 3.5 per cent using a small cascade of 164 centrifuges. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the fiery Iranian leader dismissed UN resolutions as a scrap of paper and vowed to drastically increase uranium enrichment capabilities by making operational an additional three thousand centrifuges at the Natanz facility by march this year to attain industrial level enrichment.

When President Ahmedinejad stands up to defend Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear programme, he symbolises the spirit of the Iranian revolution. Emboldened by North Korea’s successful nuclear tests and Hugo Chavez’s rhetoric against George W Bush, the strategy adopted by the Iranian president of confronting the US head on may perhaps be the best approach in dealing with an arrogant hyper power.

The massive US military build-up underway in the Gulf is strikingly similar to the ones before the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. The second US aircraft carrier battle group is enroute to the Gulf and a Patriot anti-missile battery has already been deployed. The US has also transferred deep penetration bunker buster bombs to Israel under cover of the Lebanon war. It may well be the case that covert US forces may even have infiltrated Iranian territory for reconnaissance and intelligence gathering of sensitive installations. Elite Israeli air force and special forces units have rehearsed precision strikes on simulated targets in the Negev desert.

Iranian armed forces and Revolutionary Guards remain involved in large scale military exercises that include live firing of long and short range missiles and other indigenously developed weapon systems. The recently acquired Russian TOR-M1 advanced medium air defence missile system, is under deployment to protect vital Iranian nuclear and other installations.

Are the US and Israel heading for an armed showdown with Iran or is it brinksmanship aimed to pressurise the Iranians to cooperate in Iraq, roll back the enrichment programme, and give up support for the Shiite Hezbollah? Both the US and Israel view a nuclear weapons armed Shiite Iran as a threat to Israel’s existence, the smaller Gulf States and gulf oil supplies.

Any joint US and Israeli pre-emptive strikes with precision munitions from F 16/18s’ both land and carrier based, and Tomahawk cruise missiles or low yield nuclear weapons, will inflict a crippling blow to Iran’s enrichment setups at Natanz, power reactors near Bushehr, research setups in Tehran and Esfahan, military command, communication, control centres and strategic economic targets within the first 24 hours. Air strikes from US airbases in Afghanistan cannot be ruled out.

Given the fighting abilities of the Iranian armed forces and the Revolutionary Guards, we could see Iranian shock and awe tactics in the form of Shahab and Fajr series long-range missile attacks against key Israeli cities and US military sites in Iraq and interests elsewhere in the Gulf. Since Israel lacks depth, it may not be able to withstand large scale destruction of its few major population centres.

Precision weapons and antiship missile attacks by Iranian naval subs and missile crafts and even suicide missions against US naval targets may cause enough damage far beyond US’s assessments, so as to block the shipping lanes in the Gulf. Although the Iranian Air Force’s F14 Tomcats fleet is not fully mission capable due to its spares’ problems, the fleet of Mig 23/29 and Su 24/25 strike aircraft has the potential to hit US ground and naval assets real hard.

Perhaps the biggest danger to the west and US interests would be the disruption of Gulf oil supplies, a scenario most dreadful even for China and Japan. The Iranians know too well that the world economy can ill afford a setback to smooth Gulf oil supplies.

With the element of military surprise no longer a key factor in the ensuing crisis, the Iranians are expected to have already implemented the necessary defensive measures including dispersal of their key enrichment facilities at alternate locations so as to withstand and minimise the impact of the massive first strike.

The US has always grossly underestimated the strength and courage of the nations it attacked in the past. Despite years of carpet bombing by US Air force B52s and the burning of thousands of miles of jungles with the deadly napalms and defoliaging with chemical agents, they failed to break the will of the North Vietnamese. Both Afghanistan and Iraq too turned out to be nightmares for the occupying US and coalition forces where they continue to sink into a deep quagmire with a heavy toll of causalities.

By challenging Iran, the US may yet commit the mother of all mistakes that will cost it dearly. Any plans for military strikes against Iran would be like playing with fire, for Ahmadinejad is no Saddam Hussein, and the professional Iranian military leadership stands high above those incompetent Iraqi generals who virtually offered no resistance to the invading coalition forces

The US seems to ignore the lessons of history. No sovereign nation can be arbitrarily prevented from acquiring nuclear technology for legitimate peaceful purposes and Iran is no exception. Sanctions have never worked or deterred nations from pursuing their national goals and objectives.

American sanctions against Pakistan did not deter its resolve to develop and consolidate its nuclear enrichment and weapons programme — these were deemed essential to its national security imperatives. The UN sanctions will not put brakes but only strengthen the Iranian determination and commitment to their enrichment programme. The Iranians have rallied around Ahmadinejad more than ever and thus infused a new spirit in the revolution.

The sanctions against Iran smack of hypocrisy. While the west helped and then turned a blind eye towards Israel’s two hundred or more nuclear weapons, it has no legal or moral grounds to deny the Iranians the right to acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes especially when Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Israel has yet to sign. In the past, Israel maintained a policy of nuclear ambiguity but has recently acknowledged the existence of its nuclear stockpile. Furthermore the IAEA has produced no direct evidence that Iran is pursuing a secret nuclear weapons programme.

Pakistan supports Iran’s quest for peaceful nuclear energy and will oppose any use of force against a brother Islamic neighbour. A destabilised Iran on its western frontier will not be in Pakistan’s security and energy interests. Both Iran and Pakistan are committed to move forward on the planned transnational gas pipeline despite the US’s efforts to block this mega project so essential to our future energy needs.

At a time when Iraq has slipped into total chaos and sectarian turmoil, the US badly needs Iran’s support to restore civil order in Iraq. In line with the recommendation of the Iraq Study Group, a dialogue with Iran and Syria may well be the most prudent approach to bring stability to Iraq and the Middle East in all respects.

It is Iran’s inalienable right as a sovereign nation to acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. It is in the west’s interests to recognise this right and learn to live with a nuclear Iran. If peace is to be sustained on a permanent basis, then the Middle East should be declared a nuclear weapon free zone; Israel disarmed of its nuclear arsenal and its facilities opened to IAEA monitoring and safeguards. The US must finally accept the reality that no amount of military force or intimidation can cow down a nation determined to fight for its just rights and pride.