March Madness Bracket Picking Tips
posted March 16, 2009 - 8:41amSelection Sunday is over and you're staring at a page full of empty brackets. Decisions need to be made before your March Madness bracket deadline before the first games for the 2009 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament get played. What to do?
Some things are a given and the true key to picking March Madness winners is picking the optimum upset. And there will be plenty. Rarely does the world of college basketball conform to a predictable formula. This is what makes March Madness so much fun!
Upsets aside, choosing teams for your brackets requires some serious thought, unless of course, you're picking teams based on teams colors or mascot. You'll need to consider some general truths about the March Madness tournament:
- A #16 seed has never beaten a #1 seed in the tournament. (Advance your #1 seeds to the second round automatically.)
- Not all #1 seeds will make the Final Four. It's way too easy and predictable to have the big guys run the tournament and it rarely happens. The last time all #1's reached the Final Four, it was 1979.
- Ditch your personal preferences if you want to win the brackets. Sports betting isn't the place for loyalty. Bet with your head, not your heart.
- The #1 and #2 seeded teams got to that position because they're good. Don't pick against them in the early rounds unless you're absolutely convinced that the sky is falling or pigs can fly.
Upsets
Let's look at upsets now. Upset picks are the key in brackets because these choices can push you up in the rankings ahead of your more conservative counterparts and if you're lucky, you'll stay there. These early March Madness bracket points require careful thought and study, including some investigation into the play of each team. Remember that there will be upsets. The key is finding the right ones. Consider the following:
- The #5 and #12 games are ripe for upsets. Choose carefully because these four games often present the perfect opportunity for a lesser-seeded team to thump a strong ball club. Case in point, #12 seeds have beaten #5 seeded teams in the NCAA tournament 32 times since 1985. Most years, at least one #15 beats a #5 seed so don't forget to include at least one upset for these games.
- Pick one upset among the #13 and #14 seeded teams. These guys like to stir the pot so check for teams with veteran players in their starting five. Look for strong guard play and good free throw shooting. Don't forget to carefully research conference tournament play. Often strong conference lay translates to a tough team during the NCAA tournament.
- It's rare for a double-digit seeded team to make it into the Sweet Sixteen. So if you're feeling spunky, pick this upset carefully but don't carry it to the Final Four.
- Teams play conference tournament games right before the larger NCAA tournament. Consider a team's conference tourney play. One that battled its way to a conference championship just might have the fortitude to stir up the NCAAs.
Bracket Picking Basics
So you might not be a basketball junky but you love picking brackets. That's great but you need basic basketball IQ to choose wisely. Check out these tips for the basketball challenged:
1. Veteran teams become a force to be reckoned with in the tournament. A team of juniors and seniors is more likely to have the experience to deal with the pressure and tough play of the NCAA tournament.
2. Injuries can ruin even the most skilled team's chances in this tournament. Anyone who says "We're going win this for "X" injured player" regarding the injured player on their team is sniffing glue. Pick another team AFTER you research the severity of the injury.
3. Location, location, locaton. Teams that play closer to home have the benefit of "home team" support. Nothing gets a basketball team more energized than loud support for their fans. A quick look at the location of a school and the tournament game site might be the ticket to a great pick.
4. Many sports junkies will tell you to look for teams that are big scorers. Instead, I will tell you to look for those teams that have beaten opponents by 10 points or more. I call this the persistence factor. Play in the tournament doesn't tend to be pretty basketball. This is a grind-em-out tournament with teams simply surviving a game and advancing.
5. Look at the Coach. He's far more of a factor than most realize. The NCAA tournament is a high pressure coaching challenge featuring unknown match ups outside of regular season play. A coach can't win the game alone, but he can sure affect it.
6. Defense wins these games. Look for teams that play as a cohesive defensive machine and you'll be making a good choice.
7. Seek expert advice. ESPN, CBS, and a wealth of other sites provide in depth basketball analysis, solely to assist you in filling out your brackets.
So get with it! You've got the information you need to pick the winning teams. One more tip, consider visiting a sports betting odds web site to check out what Vegas is saying. Hedge your bets, so to speak, with a quick look at just which teams the high rollers think will win each game.
Stuck at work? Check out this LINK for information on signing up for free online streaming video for all the NCAA tournament games with March Madness on Demand.

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