Mogadishu, Somalia

We are becoming increasingly aware of the conflict in Mogadishu, the battle-scarred capital of Somalia, wherein the teenage forces of the Islamic fighters, The Somalia Islamic Courts Council (SICC), who had seemed invincible after taking Mogadishu from the city’s warlords in June, now seem powerless to stop the steady advance of the internationally recognized transitional government and the Ethiopian forces that are backing it.

Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, said Tuesday that his soldiers and their Somali allies had “broken the back” of the Islamists and killed more than 1,000 fighters, though United Nations officials have put the toll substantially below that.

Here, for your convenience, is the News item, from Nairobi, Kenya:
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN
Published: December 27, 2006
NAIROBI, Kenya, Dec. 26 — The Islamist forces once in control of much of Somalia are crumbling faster than anyone expected and beat a hasty retreat back to their stronghold in Mogadishu, Somalia’s battle-scarred capital, on Tuesday.
Ethiopia’s prime minister, Meles Zenawi, said yesterday that his soldiers and their Somali allies had “broken the back” of the Islamists.
By dawn, Buurhakaba, a large inland town, had fallen to the Islamists’ rivals, along with nearby Dinsoor and Bulo Burti, where just a few weeks ago the clerics in charge were threatening to behead people who did not pray five times a day.
The Islamist fighters, who had seemed invincible after taking Mogadishu from the city’s warlords in June, now seem powerless to stop the steady advance of the internationally recognized transitional government and the Ethiopian forces that are backing it.
By nightfall, the transitional government’s troops were 50 miles from Mogadishu, calling for the Islamists to surrender. The Islamist leaders refused, saying they would take their fight “everywhere,” possibly a threat to unleash guerrilla tactics and suicide bombers, which they have already used.
The fast-moving developments seemed to confirm what United nations officials and witnesses in Somalia have been saying since the fighting erupted a week ago: that the teenage troops of the Islamists, however religiously inspired, were no match for the better-trained Ethiopian-backed force, with its tanks and fighter jets.
Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, said Tuesday that his soldiers and their Somali allies had “broken the back” of the Islamists and killed more than 1,000 fighters, though United Nations officials have put the toll substantially below that.
But the conflict is hardly over. Thousands of people continue to march through the streets of Mogadishu, rallying for the Islamists, and analysts are unanimous that an Ethiopian occupation of Mogadishu, a city thick with weapons and xenophobia, could become a bloodbath.
In Baidoa, the seat of the transitional government, leaders said they were planning to take the capital, where they had been afraid to work until now.
“It’s just a matter of time,” said Hussein Saylan, chief of the transitional cabinet, from a command center where radios crackled in the background. “We’re moving swiftly toward Mogadishu, and the Islamists are panicking. We’re finishing them off as we go.”
Witnesses said Ethiopian fighter jets and helicopter gunships fired missiles at the retreating Islamists in pickup trucks — easy targets in the open desert.
In Mogadishu, the Islamists began fortifying the airport, radio station and other important buildings, preparing for a siege. Shopkeepers emptied their stores. Some families fled their homes and drove off with tents and water jugs in the back of their cars.
Western intelligence officials said soldiers from Eritrea were furiously distributing antiaircraft missiles to the Islamists, and residents in Mogadishu said they had already heard them being test fired. According to United Nations officials, thousands of fighters from Eritrea, Yemen, Syria and Libya have streamed into Somalia to wage a holy war against Ethiopia, a country with a long Christian history that today is about half Muslim.
Ethiopia and Eritrea are bitter enemies, having recently fought a costly border war that is still unresolved.
On Tuesday, Mr. Meles said, “The only forces we are pursuing are Eritreans who are hiding behind the skirts of Somali women.”
Though diplomats in Africa have expressed concerns about the conflict in Somalia exploding into a wider regional war, most have been noticeably silent about Ethiopia’s aggressive tactics. Ethiopian officials have said they sided with the transitional government because Somalia’s Islamist movement was a regional menace.
Patrick Mazimhaka, a high-ranking African Union official, told the BBC that Ethiopia was within its rights to strike.
“It is up to every country to judge the measure of the threat to its own sovereignty,” he said.
American officials have given Ethiopia, one its closest allies in Africa, their tacit approval to do what is necessary to neutralize the Islamists, whom American intelligence agents have accused of sheltering terrorists with al Qaeda . But American officials have asked Ethiopia to avoid strikes that could kill large numbers of civilians, and so far Ethiopia seems to be cooperating.

And this, from Reuters:

Somali pro-govt forces to encircle Mogadishu
By Guled Mohamed
MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Ethiopian-backed troops advanced on the Somali capital Mogadishu on Wednesday, but a Somali government envoy said they would not attack the Islamist stronghold.

Ambassador Abdikarin Farah said the joint force of Ethiopian soldiers and government fighters would besiege Mogadishu until the Islamists laid down their arms.
"We are not going to fight for Mogadishu to avoid civilian casualties. Our troops will surround Mogadishu until they surrender," Farah told reporters in Addis Ababa.
Many residents left their houses to cheer the victors, backed by Ethiopian tanks, who pursued the Islamists as sporadic gunfire echoed in the air.
Ethiopia has proved more than a match for the Islamist fighters, who are driven by religious fervour but lack the MiG fighter jets and long experience of one of Africa's most effective armies.
Even so, any Ethiopian-led offensive on Mogadishu, a city of two million people, is likely to be messy.

The Somalia Islamic Courts Council (SICC) has depicted the conflict with Christian-led Ethiopia as a holy war against "crusaders," tapping into popular anti-Ethiopian sentiment stoked by decades of rivalry between the two neighbors.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia has portrayed it as a war against al Qaeda-linked terrorists, winning tacit support from Washington, which believes Islamic militants are hiding in Somalia.

Analysts say another possible threat to the Islamist stronghold is gunmen, once in the employ of the capital's ousted warlords, whose loyalty to the SICC could be tested.