Watching the subtleties in the news and how it plays out is what I am very watchful for and how it all may effect next year’s national election. There are many facets to cover but first I will address last year’s election and how it has affected today’s events. We must note that it was not a landslide by any definition. The swing in Congress only amounts to a majority of a dozen seats and only one in the senate on balance. But it has emboldened the Democrats into thinking that they are now running the show and can dictate policy. This error in judgment is already beginning to come back and bite them.
If we watch the daily newsprint we can see that the goings on in Iraq are now on page five or further back yet. This indicates the future level of interest as surely as the stock market predicts the economy in upcoming months. It indicates that the press realizes that public interest in it as a sensational news item is waning. I believe that, despite liberal and media efforts to trump it up and fan the flames for public furor over it, the public is beginning to view it as old news and something like an itch that can’t be reached so you forget about it.
Having said that, I draw the point that as this is happening, the Democrats are over-playing their hand once again by continuing to hammer away at this issue and instead of making further inroads on public opinion the public is getting sick of the whining and it is beginning to form a backlash. Watch for this to ripen in the ensuing months.
As a sitting president George Bush has many leverages on the course of policy. Between now and November 2008 he almost certainly will have opportunity to appoint at least one more Supreme Court judge and possibly two since two of them are extremely old and in deteriorating health and faculties. This year has seen a number of conservative decisions which the public has overwhelmingly liked. If another vacancy does transpire we can expect a fight the likes of which we have never seen before. The issues on the left side of the aisle will follow the same old and tired standards of class warfare, abortion rights, and their kin. I posit that such a display by the left will result in exposing and reminding (as if we need reminding) the public what they stand for. In such a case whomever the nominee will be they will become a sympathetic figure and not only assure themselves of securing their place on the supreme bench but cut deeply into the public’s support of one of them for the presidency.
Other peripheral items I advise we look for to develop is support of higher taxes especially raising capital gains. At this time over 70% of the nation is invested either directly or indirectly through their pension plans in the stock and commodities markets. Supporting raising the taxes of 70% of the population is suicidal but it is what they are pushing.
Also, with public sentiment as it is toward securing our borders I predict that the winning candidate will have to embrace what the polls tell us the public wants and not any of the silly charades that Congress has offered on this issue. To go against this is also suicidal so expect to see that either this is embraced or the issue is ignored as much as possible. If the latter is the case then expect both parties to give it a wide berth.
If you were to ask me who I predict will be on the ballot I would have to say that only Fred Thompson has the credentials that the conservatives value and who has the least baggage. All of the others will become the target for criticism which will limit the effectiveness of their campaign and thus be a sitting duck for their Democrat opponent. As for the Democrats there isn’t a dime’s worth of difference between any of them but I don’t think Hillary is a sure thing. I also draw attention to the groundswell from the far left which has become the center of the Democrat party. All the radical issues from flag burning, to abortion on demand, to cut and run in the war on terror and others, will haunt Hillary Clinton. Because of her attempt to repackage herself as a moderate many will oppose her and flock to the fringes (like a Ralph Nader) and abandon her or any of the other front runners in that party. This will make it ever more difficult for them to win. After all, the first law of successful politics is that you have to keep your base happy and since the center of the Democrats is way out on the leftward end of the spectrum, anyone who is presenting the image of a moderate will have great difficulty in securing the nomination let alone the presidency.