Has been "concept" for many years, the "new energy vehicles," has only recently officially entered

the official vocabulary.

By the end of June, the Department issued a public letter to the "new energy vehicles production

enterprises and product access   Dell Latitude D820 battery management rules" (hereinafter "the Rules"), rules for the first

time, defines what constitutes a new energy vehicles: the new energy vehicles, including hybrid

electric vehicles, pure electric Automotive (BEV, solar-powered vehicles), fuel cell electric

vehicles (FCEV), hydrogen engine cars, other new energy sources (such as high-performance storage

devices, dimethyl ether) Automotive and other categories of products.

This behavior indicates that China began to direct as for ordinary cars, the production of new

energy vehicles and products, the implementation of enterprise management and access system.

Over the years, new energy vehicles due to lack of the above criteria, there are a lot of

uncertainty. The whole industry is stuck in trial production, the experimental stage, but now a

large-scale industrialization of the picture finally presented in front of.

 
The embarrassment of the pioneers

In China, car manufacturers have to adhere to the "new energy vehicles," the stage, under the new

industrial picture is worth Yehao since the lift is Cougerenao matter whether China is staging a

fierce gust of wind on the new energy vehicles onrush.

But there are also cold-shouldered city of those who view the current bearish prospects for the

development of new energy vehicles. During this year's Shanghai Auto Show, Geely's vice president

of R & D Zhao Fuquan right CBN, told reporters that within a decade, if the Which companies will

fully shift their production focus to a new energy vehicles, it would be certain death.

The late 90s of last century, new energy vehicle technology has begun to gradually surfaced, in

which case is the most successful launch of the  Dell Latitude D810 batteryToyota Prius, this car car launched in 1997

sounded the large-scale commercialization of new energy vehicles, the clarion call . As of May of

this year, Prius sales in the global total has more than 1.3 million, while the entire Toyota

Group sold 1.8 million hybrid vehicles (including Lexus brand).

At first glance a great achievement, but it can hardly cover up the embarrassment behind. First,

from the volume point of view, 12 years, Toyota's cumulative sales figures for one year with total

sales of flat Prius in the light vehicle market, this segment has been in Japan jump out in front,

but when compared with traditional power, not even in the one order of magnitude.

 In addition to other areas outside of Japan, such as China, the introduction of Prius in early

2006, after three years of sales, respectively 2152, 414 and 899, of which 2008 results are in the

ones who enjoy cycling on the basis of 24,000 yuan obtained, Prius is available in the country.

  However, even if the Prius a bad performance in the country, compared to the same type of launch

Buick LaCrosse hybrid, Honda Civic, Chang'an Jie Xun, Chery A5 it is still very "successful."

In addition to sales issues, Prius has also met with the plight of the cost, even in the best-

selling in Japan, Prius price of 2.05 million yen for each one sold that a loss of ¥ 250,000

(about RMB 1.9 million). Such a low-cost sales, in addition to and including the Honda Civic,

killing one, including competitors, the loss of the price attractive than traditional cars Toyota

is probably the biggest concern.

Into 2009, with sales rising Prius in Japan, the U.S. market have both been in short supply

situation. Introduced this year, the third-generation Toyota Prius is the last launch vehicle

equipped with nickel-metal hydride  batteries, with the increasingly widespread use of lithium

batteries, the future of hybrid and pure electric will be dominated by lithium batteries.

Toyota trying to transition faces a choice: in the end is to expand the nickel-metal hydride

battery production lines, to enlarge market share of Prius; or will spend lots of money into R & D

and production of lithium batteries, it is necessary to know the field of lithium, has lagged

behind Toyota, Nissan, GM, etc. competitors.

New energy road map

In fact, it is because of Toyota's strong cash flow, as well as hybrid technology consistently put

before allowing new energy vehicles ahead of the arrival of the era. Of its development

experiences and lessons of a hybrid will be a whole new energy industry, a valuable asset.

In the just-concluded 2009 annual import car fair, the Toyota Motor Corporation China Office Chief

Representative Etsuo Hattori, said: "(China) recently have some manufacturers propaganda, the

coming era of electric vehicles, but even the latest lithium-ion battery, also failed to solve the

fundamental problems of electric vehicles. "

Etsuo Hattori think electric vehicles only a small amount of load cell, and as a close-up of small

means of transport to use is more realistic.

In early 2009, it is the West Lake in Hangzhou, surprised to find that an ordinary car license

hanging ZOTYE 2008ev, Zheliang ordinary license plates hanging from a light vehicle different from

the traditional SUV with the heart, that is, maximum power of 27 kilowatts of lithium batteries,

the car endurance mileage more than 200 kilometers, is the first letter of the Ministry of access

to work product catalog, one of the electric vehicle.

In 2009, Chinese electric car can be called the first year of the major automobile enterprises

almost invariably in the year to market a mass-produced electric vehicle. In addition to Thai

public, the BYD introduced F3DM, Chery is off the assembly line of the S18.

 However, the present state of new energy for the pure electric car's level of development

identified is quite conservative. According to the aforementioned letter to the Department of

Public promulgated rules, the new energy automotive products are classified as initial stage,

development stage and maturity stages. At maturity,Dell Latitude D830 batterycan be an immediate large-scale commercial

use, only lead-acid battery production hybrid passenger cars, pure electric passenger vehicles and

pure electric commercial vehicles.

The widespread use of domestic lithium iron phosphate battery technology for passenger cars,

according to state regulations, only in the development period. The state has a well-defined

product development period: refers to the basic technical principles of the realization of the

path clear, the state and industry standards are not perfect, the initial conditions with

industrial products.

From the development stage point of view, the future of new energy vehicles will follow the

hybrid, plug-in combined electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles to develop

the path in order to achieve full electrification of the powertrain. According to international

management consulting firm Roland Berger expects that process will last for 20 years, from 2010 ~

2030.

With the above process at the same time is the new energy technologies in the other direction,

namely, the transformation of traditional internal combustion engine to make it smaller,

lightweight technology, more efficient, at the same time you can burn a variety of new fuels,

including ethanol, dimethyl ether, bio-diesel, hydrogen and so on.

Look at the layout of the new energy automotive industry, Japanese manufacturers have adopted the

line electric powertrain, while the German system vendors are more inclined to improve the line of

internal combustion engines.

However, the new energy technologies will be a trend destined to replace the traditional electric

-driven approach, which will allow vehicles to pass as human beings a part of the daily energy

use, are unified to the power up.

Technological bottlenecks

Before this, the excessive focus on hybrid Dell Latitude X1 batterytechnology, Toyota's new energy road map is already

lagging behind General Motors, Nissan and other manufacturers. The former can be inserted

electricity production Volt cars will be launched in 2010, which is a pure electric vehicles Leaf

will also be available at the end of 2010, while Toyota postponed until the advent of such models

in 2012, the first step from the Lithium battery research in .

Compared with conventional fuels, energy density is the most fundamental problem, every 1 kg of

gas can be stored 12 kwh of energy, while 1 kg of lithium-ion batteries can only store a maximum

of 0.2 kwh of energy. Storage is equivalent to ordinary passenger car fuel tank (40 kg) of

lithium-ion batteries, will weigh 2 tons ~ 3 tons. Li-ion battery like this, not to mention the

nickel-metal hydride batteries and lead-acid batteries of.

Even taking into account the motor with higher efficiency, also need about 700 kilograms of

lithium-ion batteries before they can make car ownership is the same as a normal car mileage.

Therefore, the current market for electric vehicles, mileage generally only a quarter of a

traditional car.

From the country last year's "10 City, 1000" program of view, electric drive will first be used in

public transportation systems, the bus than the average car weight for the batteries have a better

tolerance.

For China, in the field of electric vehicles with the gap between the level of the world's leading

not as outsiders thought so small. Electric cars than traditional internal combustion engine

driven vehicles, the powertrain is divided into three parts: the electric motor and batteries.

Batteries, at present, the domestic battery part of the whole industry chain has been formed in

order to iron phosphate lithium battery represented by lithium-ion battery technology, electric

vehicles the technology gap with the West, the smallest an advanced level.

 
Even so, with advanced lithium batteries, domestic technology, still a gap. General Motors, Volt

and the congregation Thailand 2008ev By comparison, the battery life (respectively, 10 years, 5

years) and vehicle maximum speed (160 kilometers per hour, respectively, 110 km) area, Volt has an

absolute advantage.

Volt lithium battery supplier for the A123, the world's three-vehicle lithium iron phosphate

batteries, one of the other two for Dell XPS M1210 batteryChina's BYD and the United States Vaillant (Valence).

In addition to the battery, the electrical and electronic control technology in China with foreign

countries differ greatly. Motor part is the battery of the car driven by the implementation of key

components, at present, applied to pure electric and plug-in vehicles asynchronous motor, in the

country is still in the initial stage of research and development; permanent magnet synchronous

motor is also currently a gap in performance.

In electrical control, the Chinese started even later. Battery management system which is still in

an early research stage; while DC converter in the current large-scale commercial product, and not

suitable for electric cars. Including the Universal Group, Oneida-driven and other domestic

enterprises are exploring aspects of electronic control studies.

Policy of supporting the threshold

In March of this year, "the automobile industry restructuring and revitalization plan" put forward

the next three years, the formation of new energy vehicles production capacity 500,000, accounting

for 5% of passenger car sales target, to May, the State Council decided to loan discounting method

to make arrangements 20 billion yuan of funds to support the new energy model of technological

change, and then to 6 Yuegong Department announced rules as well as the letter, including

Guangzhou, Shanghai, Chongqing, Shenzhen and other cities began to develop, including the purchase

of new energy vehicles preferential programs.

Since 2009, the National Automotive Policy is accelerating the development of new energy, but in

the specific field of implementation, there are still many steps to wait for the essay.

For example, a large-scale use of electric vehicles currently affecting the biggest obstacle - the

cost would be difficult to overcome. To Prius, for example, with the same grade of a normal car

priced at 15 million, while the Prius more the past 10 million; even a light mix of domestic

models, consumers will pay for new technologies must be nearly 5 million yuan.

 Although the beginning of this year the Ministry launched a public letter to detail the

provisions of subsidies for new energy vehicles, but mainly concentrated in the commercial vehicle

field. In the passenger section, state subsidies targeted at the user group purchases, such as

taxi companies, enterprises and institutions will receive subsidies, but subsidies for individual

car, although some cities have been a pilot, but the real winners yet to come.

As a new energy consumption, the largest group of vehicles, if the personal consumption subsidies

are not flooded, it is difficult to imagine the sales numbers would be a qualitative change.

In addition to the price to be subsidies, construction of related facilities is also troubled by

new energy vehicles Sheung Road, the main reason. The lack of charging facilities for electric car

users can be charged anywhere are the root cause.

China currently only in colleges and universities, research institutions, automotive manufacturers

and other relevant places to build a dedicated Dell XPS M140 battery，charging facilities, these facilities with 100,000

gas stations nationwide compared to just one ten-thousandth the size.

The supporting environment is almost impossible to imagine a large-scale electric vehicle Sheung

scenarios. In May of this year, Nissan first letter of the Ministry signed a contract with the

workers, charging facilities in Wuhan, a model for construction of facilities for charging large-

scale construction had begun.

However, the charging system of the future will be the establishment of systems engineering, which

includes not only stand-alone charging station, but also including various residential areas and

large car park charging pile construction, billing systems, etc.. Electric-based process, not only

for the auto industry itself, have an impact, its impact will spread to the entire surface power

system.

To the national grid, for example, in September 2008 announced that it is in Beijing, Shanghai,

Guangzhou, Shenzhen to build electric car charging stations, each Charger power station investment

is about 250 thousand yuan. Stay in single-digit charging facilities, is still in pilot stage, is

very far away from the large-scale commercial.

Finally, environmental protection, the automotive industry from the traditional internal

combustion engine technology to electric drive into the fundamental starting point. If the

Government takes effect only from the cars generated by energy consumption, measured by the

internal combustion engine vehicles to electric drive into the environmental protection or not,

will be very unscientific.

For Japan and France, these countries mainly through nuclear power generation, the electric car is

bound to reduce air pollution. But in China, the thermal power plant is still 70% of the

proportion of a dominant position.

China's electric cars do not burn gasoline, have to consume electricity from thermal power plants

- that is, China's electric car will be an indirect way, "coal", a new era of "steam." Therefore,

the electric vehicle's "energy-saving emission reduction" effect is not imaginary far from

satisfactory.

In addition, the electric motor while using it that 90% of the ultra-high efficiency of 30%

instead of the traditional internal combustion engine efficiency, but from power generation to

transmission, and from charge to discharge, the process of this series will also be a waste of

energy. If you use thermal energy, the efficiency of the whole process only about 30%, with a

considerable internal combustion engine. These are not calculating production batteries, scrap

batteries on the environment heavily polluted.

For the Government, it is sparing no effort to support the development of electric vehicles to

support the enterprises to develop new products, but also, more importantly, is the access

threshold, supporting facilities anddell battery the overall energy mix to make a fuss.

If these links do not change, then China will be difficult to grasp the new energy revolution to

the automobile industry has brought historic opportunity.

 
Related Related

The classification of new energy vehicles

 
At present, the new energy vehicles, there are two classifications, according to fuel division and

classified according to driver type.

Accordance with the power source to divide, new energy is in addition to traditional gasoline and

diesel fuel other than "fuel." This includes the liquefied gas fuels (natural gas, CNG, liquefied

petroleum gas LPG); biomass fuels (ethanol, bio-diesel); coal chemical fuel (dimethyl ether,

methanol, gasoline); power (all types of batteries, super capacitors); hydrogen; Hybrid

(traditional gasoline and diesel + battery).

In accordance with the type-driven point of view, internal combustion engine in the new energy

vehicles in place, the new engines will be mainly in gasoline and diesel alternative fuels,

including CNG, LPG, ethanol, biodiesel, dimethyl ether, methanol, gasoline, liquefied hydrogen and

the fuel mixture; motor drive, here covering the various types of batteries (lead-acid batteries,

lithium iron phosphate batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries), super capacitors and hydrogen

fuel cells.