A friend of mine asked me question that got me thinking.  The question was, How do you think technology will change in 25 years?  Being the geek that I am he thought I should know what technology is coming down the pike.  I thought about it and the truth is I can’t answer the question.

    To understand why I couldn’t answer the question lets take a look at 25 years ago 1984.  We had cassettes, and CD’s were just a very expensive novelty.  As a matter of fact most people still hadn’t seen a CD yet in 84.  Everyone having a  personal computer was a way off but one of the first modern GUI operating system was out.  Not many home computer means no internet as we know it.  You want to watch a movie your going to need a VCR no DVD’s yet either.   Think about this stereo was the best sound system we could hope for.  And if you had a color TV in your room as a kid you were set.

    Now 25 years later and what have we got.  We have seen the cassettes give way to the CD and now the CD starting to give way to the MP3.  Most homes in the United States have computers.  The internet has gone from being a novelty to one of the most common forms of communication.  DVD’s, Blue Ray Disks, movies on demand have put the poor VCR on the endanger technology list.  Two speaker stereo systems are considered low technology we have 5.1, 6.1, 7.1 and THX certified receiver systems now.  Old school color TV’s can’t even pick up over the air broadcast anymore you need the latest and greatest flat panel HDTV.  And none of this could have been predicted back in 1984.

    There is one thing that hasn’t changed that much in 25 years, that is the GUI operation system.  If you sit at a machine that is running a 25 year old GUI you can figure it out.  Why you may ask hasn’t it changed much?  Well it isn’t because they got it right back then it is because people don’t want to learn a new way to interact with their computer every 5 to 7 years.

    So what is the world of technology going to be like in 25 years I don’t know but we will most likely still be using the same type of GUI OS.  And that depresses me.