Satellite view of sea ice breaking up in the Beaufort Sea off Alaska, 15 April 2004. The top half of the image with several dark lines is the sea ice, and the solid white object is the coast of Alaska with a fringe of fast ice. This visible image was captured from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on NASA's Terra satellite. Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC.

Thirty Years Ahead of Schedule, The Arctic Sea Ice Will Vanish. IPCC current models too conservative.

I invite you to join me at Xomba.

If you are a writer: Click this:

http://www.xomba.com/referral/77777d6e

We can discuss the facts. Discuss the future.

In her article The Incredible Shrinking Sea Ice Noreen Parks, writing for ScienceNOW Daily News, for May 2, 2007 brings into focus what many critics have stated about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC approach to predicting the rise of sea level and the anthropogenic forcing of the extinction of sea-ice-adapted species -- like the polar bear and it's main food source, the ringed seal -- is wrong! The IPCC report is far too conservative. The IPCC prediction is wrong. Their models are wrong. The plight of the Arctic's sea-ice-adapted species, and their imminent extinction is shaping up and looms 30 years closer.

Noreen Parks writes, "With its wreath of sea ice shrinking ever smaller over the last half-century, the Arctic has served as global warming's canary in the coal mine. By 2050 to 2100, according to climate model predictions, Arctic summers will be ice-free for the first time in about a million years. But new research reveals the ice has been vanishing about 3 times faster than the models have predicted, shifting the inevitable meltdown about 30 years ahead of schedule."

Global climate forecasts, Noreen Parks reports, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based on computer models that use mathematical equations to describe key aspects of the physical world such as greenhouse gas levels. To simulate past climates and project future trends, the models start at a given year in the past, say 1800, and run forward in time, allowing all the parts of the faux world to interact. Although the simulations include real-world observations, this information doesn’t necessarily capture fluctuations on small spatial-scales in factors such as ocean heat and ice thickness. Together, these changes may significantly diminish sea ice. That's why climatologist Julienne Stroeve of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder, and her colleagues wanted to double-check the IPCC projections on melting with records of what actually happened to the ice.

Image: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado

A reality check: Let's see how model and world actually coincide? Does this seem to be a little off-track to you, too? Getting outside 1 standard deviation. . . Hmm?

"Stroeve's team compared results from the IPCC's 18 climate models with data from aircraft and ship reports and satellite measurements. The team found that, on average, the IPCC models simulated ice losses in September (when ice retreats to its annual minimum) at 2.5% per decade from 1953 to 2006. In contrast, the real-world observations show September ice actually diminished by about 7.8% per decade during that period. This suggests current model projections are overly conservative, and summer sea ice may disappear considerably earlier than thought, the authors conclude online 1 May in Geophysical Research Letters."

[I would use a stronger euphemism than "suggests" for the IPCC's models being disconnected from the phenomenal world. But it is a gentle phrase, don't you think? -- Les Porter]

Stroeve, Julienne; Holland, Marika M.; Meier, Walt; Scambos, Ted; Serreze, Mark -- Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast -- Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 9, L09501 10.1029/2007GL02970301 May 2007

READ the abstract here to see how the models stack up:

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL029703.shtml

Commenting on the IPCC's model deficiencies, Noreen Parks reports that Arctic modeler Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, says that one reason global climate models lowball the rate of melting is that they underestimate the amount of heat transported into the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean and Bering Sea, which affects the rate of sea ice melting.

From: http://nsidc.org/seaice/characteristics/index.html

UPDATE current ice; new record low. September, 2007.

IMAGE: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

It really does look like the IPCC models of sea ice levels are deviating further and further from reality; all of the models are wrong. What plan is there by the IPCC to correct their models? And perhaps suggest means of saving species like polar bear, ringed seal, Tiger, Elephant, Rhinoceros, Coral, Lion, or even homo sapiens? Yes, even humans. Apparently that which drives the IPCC are still the largest producers of GHG's and the suggestion to do more than is being done is needed. Atmospheric CO2 levels need to be reduced, not reduce the levels of further contamination and reduce the increases of the CO2. It will not be popular with the Multinationals, but face it: there will not be a future market for businesses when survival of people finally becomes more important than the survival of profit margins and market shares. Yes, it is time to take the concept of modern corporations apart and redesign them for the survival of the species as much or more than just the shareholder. Many corporations social effects far exceed what any society holds them responsible for. Internationalization or simply nationalization and redirection might save us yet -- but I doubt it. Hundreds of millions of people will perish because too late the truth is known. No. Getting "yours now" dooms your children's children's future. We all have some adjustments to make. The housing "slump" is not even a blip, but the whole world economy must shift to means of CO2 removal, while producing energy to "cool" the world. Removing about 100 parts per million of the CO2 will cool the planet. Else, it looks bad for our species as well as all others.

In that regard, Carl Johnson has an interesting take on Global Warming and a number of other issues. He thinks it will all be over in 143 years.

http://mb-soft.com/public3/global.html

I disagree. But he still makes some interesting points.

He is wrong on the idea of the equilibrium not being moderated by the oceans and the heat capacity of the ocean.

What if he were right?

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FIRST YEAR ICE (Photo courtesy of Ted Maksym, United States Naval Academy.)

New ice is a technical term that refers to ice less than 10 centimeters (3.9 inches) thick. As the ice thickens, it enters the young ice stage, defined as ice that is 10 to 30 centimeters (3.9 to 11.8 inches) thick. Young ice is sometimes split into two subcategories, based on color: grey ice (10 to 15 centimeters, or 3.9 to 5.9 inches thick) and grey-white ice (15 to 30 centimeters, or 5.9 to 11.8 inches thick). First-year ice is thicker than 30 centimeters (11.8 inches), but has not survived a summer melt season. Multi-year ice is ice that has survived a summer melt season and is much thicker than younger ice, typically ranging from 2 to 4 meters (78.7 to 157.5 inches) thick.

http://nsidc.org/seaice/study/modeling.html
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NORTH POLE CAM almost LIVE

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/index.php?year=2007

Visit:

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html

Read a very interesting article here:

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/essay_untersteiner2.html

On the ocean floor deep beneath this vanishing skim of ice, the Russians recently placed a monument, a marker claiming the pole is connected to the continental shelf and therefore is part of the Russian provinvce to exploit.

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Noreen Parks "suggests" these sites:

More on sea ice -- http://nsidc.org/seaice/

Images of Arctic sea ice melting -- http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/earth/polar/sea_ice/sea_ice_compare.html

How climate models work --

http://www.proquestk12.com/curr/snow/snow00/snow00.htm#how

I "suggest" two of my own articles:

http://www.xomba.com/arctic_ice_vanishing

http://www.xomba.com/the_polar_bear_threat