One of the greatest sports spectacles nears as the calendar turns to March. That’s right, March Madness nears with Selection Sunday on March 13. Prior to that, two weeks of conference tournaments to determine 31 automatic qualifier bids and the final tryouts for bubble teams who hope to turn an at-large bid into becoming America’s Cinderella.
Filling out brackets and betting March Madness is part of the growing popularity of the three-week stretch, this week ending with the Final Four in New Orleans. The general population is almost always rooting for the lower seed line, and if not an underdog then a similar story of one of the players. With name, image, and likeness a heroic performance could net plenty of money in endorsements, which wasn’t legal in previous tournaments.
The first four days are typically the best part. Aside from games starting in the middle of the workday and overlapping, it’s when the most upsets occur, bringing the greatest excitement and busting brackets.
Since 1985 an average of 12.4 upsets have happened in each tournament. It’s broken down further with 6.2 in the first round and 3.7 in the second round. Of course for betting, hitting on upsets is lucrative but don’t go overboard.
The most common first-round seeded upsets include a 10 seed over a 7 seed (57 times, 39.5%); an 11 seed over a 6 seed (54 times, 37.5%); the famed 12 seed over a 5 seed (51 times, 35.4%). From there it is increasingly less than a 13 seed upsets a 4 seed or a 14 seed upsets a 3 seed, etc.
The four most frequent seed upsets in the second round are a 6 seed over a 3 seed (29 times); a 7 seed over a 2 seed (26 times); a 10 seed over a 2 seed and an 11 seed over a 3 seed (18 times apiece); an 8 seed over a 1 seed (14 times); and a 12 seed over a 4 seed (13 times).
What Makes Up a Cinderella Team?
Typically the glass slipper fits if it’s a veteran team that has built some continuity together. An experienced team with good chemistry is privy to making a run, as Loyola-Chicago did a year ago upsetting top-seeded Illinois in the Round of 32. It’s teams who are physical, play top-notch defense, rebound and are efficient offensively, and don’t turn the ball over.
Should the Ramblers (22-6) make the tournament, they’ll be a popular pick again. They are 19th in the country defensively, allowing 61.5 points per game. On the offensive end, they convert with efficiency. They rank eighth in the country in field goal percentage at 48.9% and 13th in 3-point percentage at 38.3%.
Murray State (27-2) seems like another team that could make a run. They are top-20 in offense and defense, scoring 79.6 points per game versus allowing 61.5 points per game. Furthermore, they are 19th in shot-making with a 48.2% field goal percentage and 24th in rebounding, pulling in 36.1 per contest.
Defense Wins Championships
Looking at tournament futures, teams who are top-50 defensively, win on the road and shoot it efficiently pick to make a deep run. It’s also the teams who usually have the most talent, as indicated by the earlier rundown of frequency of upsets. Usually, there are one or two after the first weekend.
Gonzaga is the favorite at +400 with Kentucky (+800) behind them. As far as bluebloods go, Duke (+1,200) and Kansas (+1,400) fit the mold. UCLA (+2,000) made it to the Final Four last year as a double-digit seed, and though they’ll be higher this time around, they fit the mold. While Texas Tech (+2,200) lost Chris Beard, the Red Raiders are 42nd in offensive efficiency and 15th defensively. Houston (+3,000) is another Final Four team from a year ago, and the Cougars are 53rd offensively and eighth defensively.
Potential bubbles burst include Arizona (+800) and Purdue (+1,000) who both have been shaky at times defensively. Baylor (+1,800) is another. The metrics like Baylor but a season-ending injury to “every day” Jonathan Tchamwa Tchathou and the in-and-out of the lineup is cause for concern.
